Road to Super Bowl XLVI: Giants have been down this path before
Football Betting Lines
01/26/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the narrator in Robert Frost's poem "The Road Not Taken" may have decided to take the path less traveled, the New York Giants have opted for a different approach on their route to Super Bowl XLVI.
Some of the situations in the Giants' current season and the one that ended with a Super Bowl victory on Feb. 3, 2008 are so similar that it almost seems like a foregone conclusion that New York will once again hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy following this year's NFL championship game.
For starters, both clubs got off to 6-2 starts before hitting a bit of a bump. For the '07 Giants, they dropped two of three games to near the .500 mark before responding with wins in three of their last four outings en route to a 10-6 finish to the regular season.
Things got a lot tighter for the latest edition of the G-Men. Their fast start, which included a win over their Super Bowl XLVI opponent New England Patriots on Nov. 13, was nearly snuffed out by a four-game losing streak to heavy-hitters San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Green Bay. The Giants seemed to hit a low point with a 49-24 pounding at the Saints in Week 12, but the real back-breaker could have came the following Sunday, when New York failed to halt a late drive by the then-undefeated Packers en route to a 38-35 home defeat.
"Hopefully something that we learn from it is that those are the champs and you have to knock the champs out," defensive end Justin Tuck said after that loss. "You can't let them linger around. You have to knock them out."
A comeback victory at Dallas in Week 14 looked to get New York back on track, but a tough-to-swallow 23-10 loss to visiting Washington the following week seemed to indicate the Giants -- 7-7 at the time -- were set for a third straight late-season collapse that would cost them a playoff spot.
Backs against the wall and needing to win out, the Giants put forth consecutive convincing victories, winning the battle of New York with a 29-14 decision over the Jets 29-14 before sealing the NFC East title with a 31-14 rout of the visiting Cowboys on New Year's Day.
While both the '07 and '11 Giants have been guided by Eli Manning under center, one difference between the teams has been the big-play ability that wide receiver Victor Cruz has brought to the present squad.
The undrafted breakout star torched the Jets for a 99-yard touchdown that put a spark back into New York's season, and then caught a 74-yard scoring pass from Manning in the finale with the Cowboys, one of three thrown by the Giants' quarterback on the day.
"I think we had a lot of ups and downs throughout the season," Cruz said after that win. "When our team needed us the most, we responded. We've done some good things. We were able to keep a level head going on a four-game skid. We were able to keep our composure and not get crazy or not start a spatting board with each other."
The Giants went into the playoffs having already been in elimination mode, and hardly blinked over the first two rounds.
Up first was a dominating 24-2 victory over the Wild-Card winning Atlanta Falcons in which the New York defense allowed just 247 yards and helped the offense control the ball for over 34 minutes. That was followed by the Giants avenging their earlier loss to the top-seeded Packers with a 37-20 win in Green Bay.
Manning threw for three touchdown in passes in both games versus the Packers, with his effort in the Divisional Round coming at Lambeau Field, a place not known to be easy for opposing teams. That victory gave the Giants plenty of confidence going into their showdown with second-seeded San Francisco in the NFC Championship.
"Well, considering where we came from, it means everything," defensive end Osi Umenyiora said after the Green Bay win. "Everybody wrote us off. They always do that. So we're just going to keep on fighting and keep on playing hard and hopefully we'll keep things going."
That they did, thanks to another gutsy effort from Manning, whose accomplishments this season have helped him once and for all step out of the shadow of big brother Peyton. The younger Manning shook off six sacks to help rally the Giants for a 20-17 overtime win over the 49ers, and erased a late four-point deficit with a 17-yard touchdown pass to Mario Manningham with 8:34 left in the fourth quarter.
After the Niners forced overtime on a 25-yard field goal with 5:39 remaining in regulation, a Giants' fumble recovery on a punt helped to set up Lawrence Tynes' 31-yard winning field goal.
After notching five fourth-quarter wins during the regular season, Manning helped put together another strong finish to become the first player in NFL history to record five road postseason victories. That has him on the verge of grabbing his second Super Bowl championship, which would be one more than future Hall-of-Famer Peyton.
"Some of the questions that have come to me about Eli -- we have such great trust in him," said Giants head coach Tom Coughlin. "He stands in there and he'll take the blows. He'll get right back up, he gets right back in the huddle. He's the same positive influence on everybody around him.
"He doesn't get real upset and point the finger or want to know what the deal is. I'm sure he does in his mind, but he's never going to show that. He's got a real sense of toughness about him and it's demonstrated by the way in which he plays."
With eight touchdown passes in the playoffs, Manning looks nothing like the quarterback that was picked off five times over New York's four-game skid, or three times in the late loss to Washington. He looks like a true leader, one who can once again have his team standing tall at season's end.
"Guys never quit, never ever have any doubts," Manning said. "They keep believing and fighting until the very end, no matter what the circumstances are."
Coughlin agrees that his team's rough and at times seemingly impossible road to the Super Bowl has toughened it up.
"They have grit now. They're battle-tested," he remarked. "We've had five straight single-elimination games. Somehow, some way we've found a way to scratch our way to a win. We prepare well. The guys really do know what's at stake."
If the Giants look in the mirror, they may very well see a lot of 2007 staring back at them. And that's fine as long as this campaign ends the same: with New York having triumphed over New England in the season's biggest game.
Super Bowl XLII featured "The Helmet Catch," a pass from Manning to David Tyree that the wide receiver cradled against his headgear after Manning escaped pressure to give the Giants a first down and lead to the game-winning touchdown in a 17-14 New York victory.
Who knows what the Giants have in store this time around, but it won't matter as long as it ends in a win.
And by the way, the Giants had to knock off the NFC's top-two seeds in the 2007-08 playoffs before besting the then-undefeated Patriots that year. While New England doesn't bring a perfect record into this rematch, New York once again triumphed over the best the conference had to offer to reach this Super Bowl.
"It does [feel like 2007] and hopefully we will have the same result," said Umenyiora. "We still have one more game to go, but this is truly unbelievable."
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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